However, I believe the Workers’ Party has made a good move in fielding Lee Li Lian as she has some experience working the ground at Punggol East constituency before. Fielding Gerard Giam or Yee Jenn Jong will not be strategic to the Workers’ Party in the long term as should either one of them not win the by-election, I believe the Workers’ Party would also have to field the candidate back in Punggol East SMC in the next election for the sake of consistency, hence they cannot be deployed to contest in other wards. Also as another matter of consistency, by not fielding Lee Li Lian in the coming Punggol East by-election, the Workers’ Party is creating opportunities for all to question why it did not field a candidate which it has fielded to contest in the same ward in the General Election 2011.
Besides, I believe Gerard Giam is groomed to helm the Workers’ Party team in the next General Election for East Coast GRC while Yee Jenn Yong should still concentrate on Joo Chiat SMC. With Eric Tan, the anchor of the Workers’ Party’s team in East Coast GRC resigned, Gerard Giam should be, naturally the Workers’ Party’s anchor for the East Coast GRC election in the next General Election. East Coast GRC is the GRC that can be won by The Workers’ Party in the coming General Election as the GRC won the lowest % of votes for the ruling party in the General Election 2011. Fielding a more “heavy-weight” candidate in Gerard Giam in East Coast should seem quite reasonable.
Even if Gerard Giam were to be fielded in the Punggol East By-Election and win the ward, I believe there will be a dilemma in future for the Workers’ Party as Gerard Giam, whom I believe, is poised for leadership role in the Workers’ Party becomes “confined” to just the Punggol East ward rather than growing and helping his party to grow by capturing and defending a GRC. I noted that this is exactly the same thought that propelled the Chief of The Workers’ Party, Low Thia Khiang to risk leaving Hougang SMC to contest in the Aljunied GRC in the General Election 2011. Low’s team created history in Singapore’s political landscape by defeating a team from the ruling party consisting of two Ministers, one Minister-of-State and one potential minister.
While Lee Li Lian’s profession may not be as impressing as the candidate of the ruling party, Koh Poh Koon, I think it may be less of a factor here as the Workers’ Party brand, as a better Opposition Party is quite established here in Singapore. With this “brand cachet”, I think what the voters in Punggol East want in Lee Li Lian is just a hardworking MP who will work hard to resolve the Rivervale Plaza saga and some of the local facilities.
Having said all this, I do not think any of the Opposition Party can win this snap by-election, since the majority of the voters in Punggol East still prefer the ruling party as can be seen in the more than 10% lead of the PAP over the Workers’ Party. Secondly, a multi-cornered fight, will just take shave some votes from the Workers’ Party and not the ruling party to the third, fourth or fifth opposition party contesting in the by-election. Thirdly, in the lead-up to Nomination Day, the scramble of many Opposition Parties to get a slice of Punggol East seems to suggest to Singaporeans that Opposition Unity may still be some distance away.
Koh Poh Koon has unveiled his campaign or slogan for his bid for Punggol East. This slogan or tagline is “This is Me, I am Me”. This slogan sounds quite familiar to me as I have heard about some “Me time” from some advertisers before. I hope Lee Li Lian can campaign on a more powerful slogan something like “It is about YOU”. Then another party may contest on “This is about US” and we have something like a Stephen-Convey kind of message in this by election!
I predict a 45% win for the ruling party, a 39% win for the Workers’ Party and the remaining 16% of the votes to be distributed among the other contesting parties with SDP getting 12% of the votes.
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