I woke up at 12pm this afternoon after frantically trying to keep awake watching the live telecast of the Singapore Presidential Election 2011. Yup, I watched the whole broadcast with many Singaporeans tuning in as well (I supposed).
The election results ought to have been released around 1 a.m but due to a recount of the votes, the results came only around 4.30 a.m:
The results are:
a) Tony Tan: 35.19%
b) Tan Cheng Bock: 34.85%
c) Tan Jee Say: 25.04%
d) Tan Kin Lian: 4.91%
Though Singapore Short Stories is a politically-neutral blog, I would like to share with readers my own humble mathematical analysis on the results.
In the General Election in May 2011, the pro-establishment votes was 60% and the opposition votes was 40%. Let us term this as a 60-40 rule.
In my own prediction, I had thought that the Presidential Election would be a 3-cornered fight with candidate from the 3 camps : establishment, neutral and opposition.
In the recent May 11 election, we saw the 60% vs 40% in Establishment and Opposition respectively. Applying this 60-40 rule to the 3 aformentioned camps in the Presidential Election, we would expect 60% of each supporters in Establishment and Opposition camp to continue supporting the candidates of their camps. This would translate to:
a) Establishment: 60% of 60% =36 %
b) Opposition: 60% of 40% = 24%
And the rest of the 40% votes will go to the neutral.
In this Presidential Election, Dr Tony Tan whom many Singaporeans see as coming from the Establishment camp secured 35.19% which is quite close to the 36% I predicted. Tan Jee Say, whom hailed from the Opposition camp in the General Election secured 25.04% which is quite close to the 24% I predicted. Tan Cheng Bock and Tan Kin Lian whom many Singaporeans thought of as neutral and pro-Singaporean collectively secured 39.76% which is quite close to the 40% I had predicted for the neutral camp. Hence I forsee if the neutral camp has only 1 candidate, either Tan Cheng Bock or Tan Kin Lian may win the Presidential Election instead!
